FPL Tactics: Striker / Forward Targets for pricepoints (based on ’17-’18)

After price-point analyses for Goalkeepers , Defenders, and Midfielders, here’s the same for Forwards.

Tend to think that the Forward PPGs are quite low in the higher reaches. Weak season for the forwards, 17-18 was. Can this be a norm going forward? We shall see. Perhaps the preeminence of the inside forward has killed off the pre-eminence of the bog forward as the captaincy choice? Note that at the higher reaches, the midfielders seem to be comfortably outpacing the forwards at the same price in terms of ppm.

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FPL Tactics: Midfielder Targets for pricepoints (based on ’17-’18)

After price-point analyses for Goalkeepers and Defenders, here’s the same for midfielders.

The graph has a slope almost as steep as that of defenders. Are higher priced midfielders THAT MUCH MORE efficient than cheaper midfielders. I doubt it. In my opinion, this season was a little skewed by Sterling and Salah both massively overshooting their (nonetheless very high) price-point. I would not expect the slope of the graph to be SO steep, going forward. I would guess it would be more steep than the forward, but less steep than defenders – now it is almost equal.

When I eventually plot the overall targets in connection with these numbers, I will consider choppipng one or both of Salah and Sterling. That will be realistic.

#FPL : Alonso is STILL essential (And Sarriball is nice for FPL!)

Read a piece on Sarri’s formation – and wanted to share because it seems like Chelsea is a ready-made (or at least a very good) fit for the Sarri method.

Here is the link
http://www.thefalse9.com/2017/11/mauriz … ation.html

From the article – in parallel with inputs about the Chelsea players

Napoli always start with Sarri’s preferred 4 3 3 formation. The system is so good because its very fluid and it allows Napoli players to interchange freely, especially the front 3. The two defenders are a perfect partnership with Albiol (Luiz/ Christensen) the technically gifted of the two and Koulibaly (Rudiger / Cahill) providing the pace and power although not without ball playing skills of his own. The two full backs are very complete in defence and in attack with Ghoulam (Alonso) always trying to overlap but Hysaj (Azpilicueta) is a bit more stationary. Jorginho (eh, well, Jorginho) is the pivot in midfield, he is the controller who sets the tempo with his passing similar in style to Sergio Busquets. Allan is very good as a box to box midfielder helping out in both defence and attack (Bakayoko / Loftus-Cheek is the exact fit, but surely Kante, in his current role) with Hamsik an aggressive midfielder playing almost as shadow striker when Napoli have the ball (Kovacic  / Fabregas) and he often interchanges positions with Mertens when Napoli have the ball. The front 3 contain some dazzling players who rightly get most of the plaudits, Insigne (Hazard ) is a skillful inside forward and play-maker. Mertens has been converted very successfully to a striker offering a different aspect in attack with his fluidity and pass (NOTE: This was initially Milik, and Morata approximates him. Surely Sarri can play with him. And of course Higuain before him fits in seamlessly). While Callejon (Willian/ Pedro) is an out and out winger who is mostly stationary down the right side

A few hypotheses from my side:
1. Alonso will remain a very attractive purchase.
2. Kovacic at 6M could be a big bargain.
3. Whoever nails down the Chelsea forward position will be an incredible bargain. Morata (big, technically adept classical continental no.9) is the Higuain prototype, and Pedro (tiny quick converted winger with a great finish) is the Mertens have both been prolific.
4. I do not think this method will require too much time for Chelsea to adjust into.

Sarri-ball will be up and running soon…

The Manchester City Line up (from an FPL PoV)

Since I am a bit of a Pep fan, though not one of Man City; and being a formations / strategy nerd, I thought of providing my take on what City’s formations would look like – with specific focus on how it affects fantasy football –  PS: I am not doing one for Arsenal, because my personal biases on players often impact my comments…

Formation:

Most often 4-3-3. The alternate is 3-5-2,  which will be deployed much less often.

Center Forwards:

Aguero first choice, Jesus second choice. Sterling third choice. I do not see both of Aguero and Jesus playing together often, even in the 3-5-2. There, I suspect Sterling to reprise his role for England as the second striker. Also, here’s a judgment call – last season we saw that when Aguero is fit, he almost always plays. Jesus plays when Aguero is injured. I think it will be a bit more distributed this season i.e. even if Aguero is not injured, the distribution of playing minutes would be about 60:40. Jesus is far too good already to not get a lot of minutes.

CF: Aguero (Jesus) (– Sterling)

 

Wing forwards in a 4-3-3, and full backs (which should be discussed together, I think)

It seems from the pre-season and GW1 (where my team was quite comfortably beaten) that most of the width will be provided by the full backs than wingers (more Barcelona, less Munich). Interesting to note though that the backups for Mendy (Delph), and Walker (Danilo) are better as inverted fullbacks, than flying attacking fullbacks. I assume therefore that if the first choice are injured , then the formation becomes more Munich for that wing, with the winger providing the width – similar to last season on the left, where the width was provided by Sane, a traditional winger – and not Delph the fullback.

Thus, with Mendy and Walker playing in a 4-3-3, the wing forwards would both be cutting inside (and that was the formation we saw at the Emirates). Sterling on the left, Mahrez on the right. Tentatively I suggest that their first backups are Jesus and Sane respectively. (thus my emerging hypothesis is that Mahrez is the first choice right wing attacker,and Sane is his primary backup. It could as well be Sane first choice and Mahrez as backup.

Thus : in a 4-3-3,

RB: Walker (Danilo) (– Stones)

LB: Mendy (Delph) (– Zinchenko)

RW: Mahrez (Sane) (— Bernardo)

LW: Sterling (Jesus) (— Brahim Diaz)

 

Midfielder:

This is simple. And stays consistent in a 4-3-3 and 3-5-2

Deepest midfielder: Fernandinho (Gundogan) (– Delph) (others–Zinchenko, Gomes)

RCM: KDB (Gundogan) (– Foden)

LCM: Bernardo Silva (David Silva, or the other way around) (– Foden)

 

Central Defenders:

Very difficult to say. I assume that in normal circumstances, Kompany plays key games. But he will be heavily rotated even when fit. I think Guardiola’s ideal formation is with Laporte as LCB and Stones as RCB, though I do not think they are ready to play together consistently yet, and Guardiola will pair one with Kompany and Otamendi. As for Otamendi, even with all last season’s heroics, I somehow see him as 4th choice, and not a natural fit for Guardiola. He will play enough too, but will not have the security of starts as he had last season. Two of Tosin, Mangala, Denayer and the new guy will be sent on loan I think.

 

The OhMyGod Fantasy Football week.

 

For the ones who do not know:

Fantasy Premier League is the most-played fantasy football game in the world, with nearly 3 Million people playing every year. Doing well in this online real-time football management game is seen by many as a source of major credit (read this).

On the 37th Gameweek of the 2011-12 Fantasy Premier League season.  I was ranked 98th. In the world. A minor debacle in GW 38 made me come down to 212th, which is where I finished the season.

I was probably 4th or 5th in FISO, and 2nd in India.

My greatest ambition in FPL has always been to end the season as 1st in India. I was very close ast season. Someday, I will do better.

Fantasy Premier League – Top 100,000 (selecting a team 2/3 – MD and FW)

Q1: You know what? You are fairly good. I am doing much better this season, taking in your tips. Now tell me about strikers. And Midfielders.

A1: Okay, here you go. You listening? I will rush through. If you did not get anything, or have a question, you have the comments section. Use it.

Midfielders + Forwards:

Think of them as just the same. They are the ones who get the big points.

Caveat 1. A top assist making midfielder from a good team is equivalent to a top goalscoring forward, i.e. effectively Silva of 2011-12 is as good as Rooney 11-12. Just that Rooney is more costly, and Silva lost his form late season.
Caveat 2: The best forwards – who have the potential to score 2+ goals a week, are better than the Caveat 1 players.
Caveat 3: The top goalscoring midfielders (who have the potential to score 2+ goals a week) are Fantasy Football gold.
Caveat 4: Don’t buy defensive midfielders. Makalele, great as he was, was never an FPL stalwart. No goals, no assists, occasional bonus points, and some red and yellow cards…. Al at about 6M, while you could be ensured more steady returns even from JD2P.
So. Choose 6 of the 8 players now.

4 should be among the ‘very expensive’ bracket, these will be your choice of captains. 2 are cheap as chips.These are your enablers. The only think you have to note about the chips, are that they have regular 90 min game time. Thus the 4.5M irregular starter from Man United is far worse as a Fantasy Football pick  than the 4.5 starter from Wigan. Play-time for these enablers is important because there will be injuries during the FPL season, and when one of your first-teamers is not playing due to injury or rotation, you would like ‘John Doe 2 points (JD2P)’ to come in, rather than 17 year old Arsenal hotshot, who sat in the bench that GW.

Expensive ones will cost at the range of 10M each. Cheap ones will cost 4.5+4.5=9M

So you have got 12 players now. Costing 11+20+40+9 = 80M

(Tag: How to win at Premier League Fantasy Football –  http://fantasy.premierleague.com )