Tactics: Goalkeeper Targets for the season

I did some number-crunching from last year’s data

https://public.tableau.com/profile/mike … ublish=yes
is the tableau graph I used. Thank you MoSe for sharing

The comparison – levelling exercise that I had in hand was last year’s top 10 and top 10k approximations that RuthNZ made on the 2016-17 players, and the rough estimate guidelines I used for this year.
I only considered players that had played at least 10 matches, (a match is considered at least 30-min appearance), and that had at least a 7.5% ownership.
There are not too many data points obviously, but the point is – I accept that this is not an exact science, and my objective was to get a trend, and a trend-line, to help me decide.

Will not do a detailed story around the numbers here. Here is a bit of synthesized data – make of this what you will. Some basic hypotheses are provided alongwith.

Goalkeepers
This is the graph for goalkeepers, and the resultant ppg calculation as per the trendline

 

My big finding? Goalkeepers have the most ppm in comparison to any other position. However, the slope of the graph is less steep than any other position (expect for forward which is about the same. My understanding from that is that the marginal benefit of having the best higher priced goalkeeper over the best lower priced goalkeeper is the least in comparison to the price.

Simple language: if your team permits – the best cheap goalkeeper (s) is the way to go.

 

#FPL

Advertisements

F365: The loneliness of the reserve goalkeeper

Nothing new here, but for an amazing line.

Here’s the article. (At F365)

And here’s the line:

Were all those cold winter mornings on the training pitch to gain glory in the shirt or drive home from training in a flash car? Actually, don’t answer that.

This is a good enough line to start writing a short story on it…

 

Fantasy Premier League – Top 100,000 (selecting a team 1/3 – GK and DF)

Q1. Okay enough of this lurking the forums and reading rules and all assorted bu**s**t. Let’s get to business shall we? How do you select a team? Here’s my plan. I will get RVP, And Rooney, and Nani, and Aguero, Silva, Van Der Vaart, and fill the rest of the team with 4.0 players. Ah, it is impossible to get a good team done….

A1. No, don’t do that. Here’s the way you build the team. Here’s the writeup:

_________________________________

Assumptions: The newbie understands football and the Premier League. Has got some understanding of the immediate history (last 10 years), and has the patience to follow the game every week, 30 min a day during non-matchdays should be fine. And he/she would read the rules. religiously, every line.

Now here.
Goalkeepers:
1. Start with One rock bottom 1st choice goalkeeper and Petr Cech (in case of non-availability, Man United’s 1st choice).
2. By the 5th week figure out which of the 4.5 or below goalkeepers is the best at getting CS/save points, and replace Cech with him.
3. If the already present Rock bottom guy is working, keep him, else substitute with the best rock bottom guy.
4. Keep to this pricing. Goalkeepers are not substituted often.
5. You can change GKs, but keep to the pricing. The best at the 4.5 M range, and another first choice at the rock bottom price.

Defenders.
1. Remember this acronym. CRD. Repeat after me. CRD. CRD. CRD. Cheapest regular defender.
2. First – your team will need two defenders from top 6 teams (exclude Tottenham, and to keep it simple, Arsenal too. Both TOT and ARS are required sometime if you want to get into the top 1000, but to include those factors for the top 100,000? No. I’ll keep it simple)
3. Get the cheapest of the CRDs in the Man United and Chelsea teams. Smalling? So be it. = 5.5
4. Get the CRD of Man City= 6.0
5. The CRD of Liverpool is preferable over every other defender, if you can afford (Why? Would be cheaper than the CRD of MCY, MUN and CHE generally). Don’t pick him now. Will see about the price later.
6. Pick the one Rock bottom price defender, who is at a medium good team, will be a starter, and you can sometimes depend on him to keep clean sheets against weak opposition (Simpson, Ryan Taylor et al) = 4.0
7. Pick the slightly higher than lower-price defender. Same concept as the CRD. But here the caveat is this is someone who you can expect to keep CSes against all but the top 6 at home = 4.5M

So you go your 4 defenders, for 20M
Plus goalkeepers at 11, to be changed to 8.5 later
6 players at 31M

(Tag: How to win at Premier League Fantasy Football –  http://fantasy.premierleague.com )