FPL Cognitive Biases: Framing Bias (or) Sakho AND PVA, are you kidding me?

So here is the thing. Most of you know that the 5.0M defender I am most comfortable having in my team, is Sakho (bonus magnet. Uncle Roy’s teams definitely will get ~11-12 CSes). And perhaps most of you have figured out that the 5.5M defender I am most comfortable having in my team is PVA (CSes, as discussed, plus almost guaranteed 5G+5A). Both are guaranteed starters.
So why don’t I have both of them in my team?
Because they are both from CPL, silly. What if both of them concede a freak goal? Both of them would get their CS busted. That is conventional wisdom.

That my friends, is framing bias.

What if both of them get a freak clean sheet? because I will be playing both of them in most games – no? Yes. 5 defenders is my almost-default formation, unless the one true bandwagon MID/FW arrives.
And in the (almost guaranteed) no CS games — MCY away, LIV away — I will still play PVA, because he can get a goal, and I will play the 12th player (Cairney) in place of Sakho, dammit.

I will get Sakho soon.

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Is Salah essential? Yes at (say) 10.5M, no at 13M

There’s a question I am trying to get my head wrapped around. At what PPG is Salah worth getting in the team? I thought there is a mathematical solution to this.

Math:
Caveat: You know I do not have Salah in my team. But I have tried to keep the bias out of the equation.

So above are the numbers. How to interpret them?

Part A – If Salah has a similar season to 17-18

On the left
Assume Salah will get 8.4 ppm
The standard 9.5M midfielder (Mane) will get 6.28 ppm as per the gradient of last year.— (NOTE: this is not Mane’s number, but the gradient of all the popularly owned midfielders, and where it coincides with 9.5M).
Also, since Salah will not be a captaincy option, I would assume the captain would be the next highest ppm-getter for the season i.e. Aguero at 7.30.
Now, if you have the control group to compare Salah with as (Mane + Aguero as captain),
You will have 3.5million (no having Salah) giving you 3.22 ppm as your control case.

On the right
While drawing the gradients as we had done below, we have arrived at the ppm gain per 0.5m addition in price. We see that the highest gradient is for the defender, and lowest for the goalkeeper.

Now even for the best case -i.e. we utilize the 3.5m into the best defenders and take advantage of the incremental benefit of the extra money, we would still be about 33 points in arrears. more realistically, if you spread it around (0.5 GK; 1M DF; 1M MID, 1M FW), you are in arrears by ~40 points.

Inference: If Salah captures last season’s form, you have to have him. He is essential. Nothing else you do can top not having him, even at 13M (i.e. unless there is another player who is giving similar returns as Salah)

But if Salah would do a little worse than last season, then? How much worse can he do if you compare him against the most realistic control case (same as what we tried last time

Part B – If Salah does slightly worse than 17-18

On the left
Experiment has given me the number of 280 points. i.e. 7.8 ppm for a 36-game season. This is the tipping point below which having Salah does not remain a realistic option.

If Salah will get 7.8 ppm
The standard 9.5M midfielder (Mane) will again get 6.28 ppm as per the gradient of last year.
The next highest ppm-getter for the season i.e. Aguero will be the captain at 7.30.
Now, if you have the control group to compare Salah with as (Mane + Aguero as captain),
You will have 3.5million (no having Salah) giving you 1.98 ppm as your control case.

On the right
Now even for the worst case -i.e. we utilize the 3.5m into the two worst gradients – 1.5M for GK, and 2M for striker; and take the least advantage of the incremental benefit of the extra money, we just about make 1.98 ppm, par. More realistically, if you spread it around (0.5 GK; 1M DF; 1M MID, 1M FW), Salah will have to get 282 points to just make par.

Inference: Salah will have to get at least 280 (7.8ppm for a 36 gameweek season) points to be a realistic option at the 13M price. Salah’s score can fall only by about 7.5% from his lofty standards of last year for him to not be viable anymore.

PS: even with my horrible captaincy targets (7.0 ppm target), Salah will still need to get 272 (~7.6ppm) to make par.

 

FISO’s Matt Martyniak WINS Fantasy Premier League!

Reflected glory if there ever was!

One of our FISO boys won Fantasy Premier League ’12-’13. First among 2.6 MILLION players. Spidermatt, take a bow.

He also plays in Fantasy Football Scout. Here’s what they say about him.

[Edit: And here’s the FISO dedication]

[PS: Join FISO. It’s addictive, it’s intelligent and it’s friendly. And once you are in, message /comment me here. I’ll help you navigate.]

The OhMyGod Fantasy Football week.

 

For the ones who do not know:

Fantasy Premier League is the most-played fantasy football game in the world, with nearly 3 Million people playing every year. Doing well in this online real-time football management game is seen by many as a source of major credit (read this).

On the 37th Gameweek of the 2011-12 Fantasy Premier League season.  I was ranked 98th. In the world. A minor debacle in GW 38 made me come down to 212th, which is where I finished the season.

I was probably 4th or 5th in FISO, and 2nd in India.

My greatest ambition in FPL has always been to end the season as 1st in India. I was very close ast season. Someday, I will do better.

Fantasy Premier League – Top 100,000 (selecting a team 2/3 – MD and FW)

Q1: You know what? You are fairly good. I am doing much better this season, taking in your tips. Now tell me about strikers. And Midfielders.

A1: Okay, here you go. You listening? I will rush through. If you did not get anything, or have a question, you have the comments section. Use it.

Midfielders + Forwards:

Think of them as just the same. They are the ones who get the big points.

Caveat 1. A top assist making midfielder from a good team is equivalent to a top goalscoring forward, i.e. effectively Silva of 2011-12 is as good as Rooney 11-12. Just that Rooney is more costly, and Silva lost his form late season.
Caveat 2: The best forwards – who have the potential to score 2+ goals a week, are better than the Caveat 1 players.
Caveat 3: The top goalscoring midfielders (who have the potential to score 2+ goals a week) are Fantasy Football gold.
Caveat 4: Don’t buy defensive midfielders. Makalele, great as he was, was never an FPL stalwart. No goals, no assists, occasional bonus points, and some red and yellow cards…. Al at about 6M, while you could be ensured more steady returns even from JD2P.
So. Choose 6 of the 8 players now.

4 should be among the ‘very expensive’ bracket, these will be your choice of captains. 2 are cheap as chips.These are your enablers. The only think you have to note about the chips, are that they have regular 90 min game time. Thus the 4.5M irregular starter from Man United is far worse as a Fantasy Football pick  than the 4.5 starter from Wigan. Play-time for these enablers is important because there will be injuries during the FPL season, and when one of your first-teamers is not playing due to injury or rotation, you would like ‘John Doe 2 points (JD2P)’ to come in, rather than 17 year old Arsenal hotshot, who sat in the bench that GW.

Expensive ones will cost at the range of 10M each. Cheap ones will cost 4.5+4.5=9M

So you have got 12 players now. Costing 11+20+40+9 = 80M

(Tag: How to win at Premier League Fantasy Football –  http://fantasy.premierleague.com )