#FPL – But Hazard is so inconsistent!

Sorry for the digression — Are we considering Liverpool’s defence now? Why? Aren’t they notoriously porous at the back?

What? We are! Why? Because they have a better defence now and have become defensively stable, you say?

Hazard has perhaps only ever played under defence-first managers at Chelsea. And now they have probably the most gung-ho attacking manager in the whole of Europe, coaching them.

If we are considering Liverpool’s defenders inspite of Liverpool’s recent history defensively (psst, even that was a bit of a myth) — we are doing so because of reality rather than history. We should do the same with Hazard.

FPL Goalkeepers: Ederson (vs) Alisson

So here are two guys who will have a massive tug-of-war for the slot of the national team goalkeeper for Brazil, and also I suspect for the Premier League trophy – for the next decade, I think. Interesting. But who among them should we pick for our FPL team?

In all honesty, there’s little to choose from a goalkeeping standpoint. Both LIV and MCY will keep a lot of clean sheets this season. You can pick either one and forget about the slot.

However, here’s one other definite reason to choose one over the other…. assists. Now before you go all ‘C’mon Baganboy, it was just one freak assist last match‘ on me, here’s something I have pieced together from a couple of videos, and which just got confirmed through a graphic that I received in the morning from the http://fantasyfootballfix.com/ website’s twitter feed (@FantasyFootyfix ). This will tell you more about why I think one is substantially better than other from an FPL PoV.

See the passing range and distribution of the two. First Alisson.

What did you see?

Alisson passed out a lot to the deep-lying midfielders, and to the wingers and wing-backs (the green lines). There are fewer direct passes up top and through the middle (i.e. the red lines)- and if I am not wrong, the longer passes would be more for springing counter attacks.

This is also realistic because a) Firmino, the nominal center-forward for LIV plays in a withdrawn forward / false-9 role. His chief responsibility is to bring others into play. b) Salah and Mane are Inside Forwards who prefer cutting in from deep. So that means IMHO that the assist potential of Allison would get realized only in a situation similar to Mane’s goal from the GW2 match against CPL in the last minute – Alisson could pass long to release Mane / Salah to counterattack to score a goal.

Chances? Few. Similar to those of Ederson last season.

Now let’s go to that man, Ederson.

With Ederson however, we find MCY taking a slightly different approach this season. You see that there are a lot of direct long passes through the middle. Remember, MCY plays with pure forwards in the shape of Aguero or Jesus, whose primary job is indeed to score goals. The above images do indeed show that.

How are they achieving it, though? In normal play, the middle of the pitch is congested. Indeed, last season, Ederson excelled in the short pass to Fernandinho or KDB. What changed this season? The video below will give a hint.

It’s a crazy sight! The MCY players have moved en-masse to the wings, the HUD players have followed – and this has resulted in a clear path being opened up for Ederson to pass long to the forward, Aguero. Which is what he did with the goal for Aguero. This is a strategic ploy that is being used by MCY; and Ederson is truly being used as an attacking weapon. Something he is well capable of.

A goalkeeper with (one of) the the best defensive team(s), who is a monster at saving penalties, and who is also an attacking threat. That is quite crazy. Ederson might make 5.5M really look like a bargain…

FPL Tactics: Striker / Forward Targets for pricepoints (based on ’17-’18)

After price-point analyses for Goalkeepers , Defenders, and Midfielders, here’s the same for Forwards.

Tend to think that the Forward PPGs are quite low in the higher reaches. Weak season for the forwards, 17-18 was. Can this be a norm going forward? We shall see. Perhaps the preeminence of the inside forward has killed off the pre-eminence of the bog forward as the captaincy choice? Note that at the higher reaches, the midfielders seem to be comfortably outpacing the forwards at the same price in terms of ppm.

FPL Tactics: Midfielder Targets for pricepoints (based on ’17-’18)

After price-point analyses for Goalkeepers and Defenders, here’s the same for midfielders.

The graph has a slope almost as steep as that of defenders. Are higher priced midfielders THAT MUCH MORE efficient than cheaper midfielders. I doubt it. In my opinion, this season was a little skewed by Sterling and Salah both massively overshooting their (nonetheless very high) price-point. I would not expect the slope of the graph to be SO steep, going forward. I would guess it would be more steep than the forward, but less steep than defenders – now it is almost equal.

When I eventually plot the overall targets in connection with these numbers, I will consider choppipng one or both of Salah and Sterling. That will be realistic.

#FPL : Alonso is STILL essential (And Sarriball is nice for FPL!)

Read a piece on Sarri’s formation – and wanted to share because it seems like Chelsea is a ready-made (or at least a very good) fit for the Sarri method.

Here is the link
http://www.thefalse9.com/2017/11/mauriz … ation.html

From the article – in parallel with inputs about the Chelsea players

Napoli always start with Sarri’s preferred 4 3 3 formation. The system is so good because its very fluid and it allows Napoli players to interchange freely, especially the front 3. The two defenders are a perfect partnership with Albiol (Luiz/ Christensen) the technically gifted of the two and Koulibaly (Rudiger / Cahill) providing the pace and power although not without ball playing skills of his own. The two full backs are very complete in defence and in attack with Ghoulam (Alonso) always trying to overlap but Hysaj (Azpilicueta) is a bit more stationary. Jorginho (eh, well, Jorginho) is the pivot in midfield, he is the controller who sets the tempo with his passing similar in style to Sergio Busquets. Allan is very good as a box to box midfielder helping out in both defence and attack (Bakayoko / Loftus-Cheek is the exact fit, but surely Kante, in his current role) with Hamsik an aggressive midfielder playing almost as shadow striker when Napoli have the ball (Kovacic  / Fabregas) and he often interchanges positions with Mertens when Napoli have the ball. The front 3 contain some dazzling players who rightly get most of the plaudits, Insigne (Hazard ) is a skillful inside forward and play-maker. Mertens has been converted very successfully to a striker offering a different aspect in attack with his fluidity and pass (NOTE: This was initially Milik, and Morata approximates him. Surely Sarri can play with him. And of course Higuain before him fits in seamlessly). While Callejon (Willian/ Pedro) is an out and out winger who is mostly stationary down the right side

A few hypotheses from my side:
1. Alonso will remain a very attractive purchase.
2. Kovacic at 6M could be a big bargain.
3. Whoever nails down the Chelsea forward position will be an incredible bargain. Morata (big, technically adept classical continental no.9) is the Higuain prototype, and Pedro (tiny quick converted winger with a great finish) is the Mertens have both been prolific.
4. I do not think this method will require too much time for Chelsea to adjust into.

Sarri-ball will be up and running soon…

FPL Cognitive Biases: Framing Bias (or) Sakho AND PVA, are you kidding me?

So here is the thing. Most of you know that the 5.0M defender I am most comfortable having in my team, is Sakho (bonus magnet. Uncle Roy’s teams definitely will get ~11-12 CSes). And perhaps most of you have figured out that the 5.5M defender I am most comfortable having in my team is PVA (CSes, as discussed, plus almost guaranteed 5G+5A). Both are guaranteed starters.
So why don’t I have both of them in my team?
Because they are both from CPL, silly. What if both of them concede a freak goal? Both of them would get their CS busted. That is conventional wisdom.

That my friends, is framing bias.

What if both of them get a freak clean sheet? because I will be playing both of them in most games – no? Yes. 5 defenders is my almost-default formation, unless the one true bandwagon MID/FW arrives.
And in the (almost guaranteed) no CS games — MCY away, LIV away — I will still play PVA, because he can get a goal, and I will play the 12th player (Cairney) in place of Sakho, dammit.

I will get Sakho soon.

The Manchester City Line up (from an FPL PoV)

Since I am a bit of a Pep fan, though not one of Man City; and being a formations / strategy nerd, I thought of providing my take on what City’s formations would look like – with specific focus on how it affects fantasy football –  PS: I am not doing one for Arsenal, because my personal biases on players often impact my comments…

Formation:

Most often 4-3-3. The alternate is 3-5-2,  which will be deployed much less often.

Center Forwards:

Aguero first choice, Jesus second choice. Sterling third choice. I do not see both of Aguero and Jesus playing together often, even in the 3-5-2. There, I suspect Sterling to reprise his role for England as the second striker. Also, here’s a judgment call – last season we saw that when Aguero is fit, he almost always plays. Jesus plays when Aguero is injured. I think it will be a bit more distributed this season i.e. even if Aguero is not injured, the distribution of playing minutes would be about 60:40. Jesus is far too good already to not get a lot of minutes.

CF: Aguero (Jesus) (– Sterling)

 

Wing forwards in a 4-3-3, and full backs (which should be discussed together, I think)

It seems from the pre-season and GW1 (where my team was quite comfortably beaten) that most of the width will be provided by the full backs than wingers (more Barcelona, less Munich). Interesting to note though that the backups for Mendy (Delph), and Walker (Danilo) are better as inverted fullbacks, than flying attacking fullbacks. I assume therefore that if the first choice are injured , then the formation becomes more Munich for that wing, with the winger providing the width – similar to last season on the left, where the width was provided by Sane, a traditional winger – and not Delph the fullback.

Thus, with Mendy and Walker playing in a 4-3-3, the wing forwards would both be cutting inside (and that was the formation we saw at the Emirates). Sterling on the left, Mahrez on the right. Tentatively I suggest that their first backups are Jesus and Sane respectively. (thus my emerging hypothesis is that Mahrez is the first choice right wing attacker,and Sane is his primary backup. It could as well be Sane first choice and Mahrez as backup.

Thus : in a 4-3-3,

RB: Walker (Danilo) (– Stones)

LB: Mendy (Delph) (– Zinchenko)

RW: Mahrez (Sane) (— Bernardo)

LW: Sterling (Jesus) (— Brahim Diaz)

 

Midfielder:

This is simple. And stays consistent in a 4-3-3 and 3-5-2

Deepest midfielder: Fernandinho (Gundogan) (– Delph) (others–Zinchenko, Gomes)

RCM: KDB (Gundogan) (– Foden)

LCM: Bernardo Silva (David Silva, or the other way around) (– Foden)

 

Central Defenders:

Very difficult to say. I assume that in normal circumstances, Kompany plays key games. But he will be heavily rotated even when fit. I think Guardiola’s ideal formation is with Laporte as LCB and Stones as RCB, though I do not think they are ready to play together consistently yet, and Guardiola will pair one with Kompany and Otamendi. As for Otamendi, even with all last season’s heroics, I somehow see him as 4^th choice, and not a natural fit for Guardiola. He will play enough too, but will not have the security of starts as he had last season. Two of Tosin, Mangala, Denayer and the new guy will be sent on loan I think.

 

Tactics: Defender Targets for the season

 

It seems that Defenders are the opposite of the goalkeepers, in that the graph has a more steeper slope than any other position. My understanding from that is that the marginal benefit of having the best higher priced defender over the best lower priced defender is the most in comparison to the price. And remember, this was the season where Burnley pulled out trees, and BHA and NEW did well too. I would guess this feature would be more prominent in other seasons.

Simple Language: The best-performing high-priced defenders are the greatest value.

Tactics: Goalkeeper Targets for the season

I did some number-crunching from last year’s data

https://public.tableau.com/profile/mike … ublish=yes
is the tableau graph I used. Thank you MoSe for sharing

The comparison – levelling exercise that I had in hand was last year’s top 10 and top 10k approximations that RuthNZ made on the 2016-17 players, and the rough estimate guidelines I used for this year.
I only considered players that had played at least 10 matches, (a match is considered at least 30-min appearance), and that had at least a 7.5% ownership.
There are not too many data points obviously, but the point is – I accept that this is not an exact science, and my objective was to get a trend, and a trend-line, to help me decide.

Will not do a detailed story around the numbers here. Here is a bit of synthesized data – make of this what you will. Some basic hypotheses are provided alongwith.

Goalkeepers
This is the graph for goalkeepers, and the resultant ppg calculation as per the trendline

 

My big finding? Goalkeepers have the most ppm in comparison to any other position. However, the slope of the graph is less steep than any other position (expect for forward which is about the same. My understanding from that is that the marginal benefit of having the best higher priced goalkeeper over the best lower priced goalkeeper is the least in comparison to the price.

Simple language: if your team permits – the best cheap goalkeeper (s) is the way to go.

 

#FPL

Is Salah essential? Yes at (say) 10.5M, no at 13M

There’s a question I am trying to get my head wrapped around. At what PPG is Salah worth getting in the team? I thought there is a mathematical solution to this.

Math:
Caveat: You know I do not have Salah in my team. But I have tried to keep the bias out of the equation.

So above are the numbers. How to interpret them?

Part A – If Salah has a similar season to 17-18

On the left
Assume Salah will get 8.4 ppm
The standard 9.5M midfielder (Mane) will get 6.28 ppm as per the gradient of last year.— (NOTE: this is not Mane’s number, but the gradient of all the popularly owned midfielders, and where it coincides with 9.5M).
Also, since Salah will not be a captaincy option, I would assume the captain would be the next highest ppm-getter for the season i.e. Aguero at 7.30.
Now, if you have the control group to compare Salah with as (Mane + Aguero as captain),
You will have 3.5million (no having Salah) giving you 3.22 ppm as your control case.

On the right
While drawing the gradients as we had done below, we have arrived at the ppm gain per 0.5m addition in price. We see that the highest gradient is for the defender, and lowest for the goalkeeper.

Now even for the best case -i.e. we utilize the 3.5m into the best defenders and take advantage of the incremental benefit of the extra money, we would still be about 33 points in arrears. more realistically, if you spread it around (0.5 GK; 1M DF; 1M MID, 1M FW), you are in arrears by ~40 points.

Inference: If Salah captures last season’s form, you have to have him. He is essential. Nothing else you do can top not having him, even at 13M (i.e. unless there is another player who is giving similar returns as Salah)

But if Salah would do a little worse than last season, then? How much worse can he do if you compare him against the most realistic control case (same as what we tried last time

Part B – If Salah does slightly worse than 17-18

On the left
Experiment has given me the number of 280 points. i.e. 7.8 ppm for a 36-game season. This is the tipping point below which having Salah does not remain a realistic option.

If Salah will get 7.8 ppm
The standard 9.5M midfielder (Mane) will again get 6.28 ppm as per the gradient of last year.
The next highest ppm-getter for the season i.e. Aguero will be the captain at 7.30.
Now, if you have the control group to compare Salah with as (Mane + Aguero as captain),
You will have 3.5million (no having Salah) giving you 1.98 ppm as your control case.

On the right
Now even for the worst case -i.e. we utilize the 3.5m into the two worst gradients – 1.5M for GK, and 2M for striker; and take the least advantage of the incremental benefit of the extra money, we just about make 1.98 ppm, par. More realistically, if you spread it around (0.5 GK; 1M DF; 1M MID, 1M FW), Salah will have to get 282 points to just make par.

Inference: Salah will have to get at least 280 (7.8ppm for a 36 gameweek season) points to be a realistic option at the 13M price. Salah’s score can fall only by about 7.5% from his lofty standards of last year for him to not be viable anymore.

PS: even with my horrible captaincy targets (7.0 ppm target), Salah will still need to get 272 (~7.6ppm) to make par.